| Data
Generated on 20080131:
Select
Category from Left Menu. Menu categories and links described below.
Ensemble
Forecasts:
'a'
items: Sequence of 17 daily images of the NCEP ensemble
mean (11-member average) 500 hPa geopotential heights (gph) and
850 hPa temperature. Images show values and standardized anomalies
of the fields (relative to the 30yr, 1971-2000 climate). Northern
Hemisphere images (NH) are low-frequency filtered fields ( 7-day
averages). North American images (NA) are unfiltered fields.
's'
items: Sequence of 17 daily images of the NCEP 11-member
ensemble member spread 500 hPa geopotential heights (gph) and
850 hPa temperature. Left portion of images show 'spagetti' plots
of 2 contours. The right portion of the plots provide information
on the magnitude of the ensemble forecast uncertainty relative
to the typical climatological variance of the particular field.
Northern Hemisphere images (NH) are low-frequency filtered fields
( 7-day averages). North American images (NA) are unfiltered fields.
NH
Averages: Consist of plots of projected
monthly-averaged 500 hPa geopotential heights, and 850 hPa temperature
in field values and standardized anomalies
(relative to the 1971-2000 climate) of the fields. M2-averaged
fields are available after the 15th of each month.
NA
Averages/Totals: Consist of links
to maps (m) and tabulated information (t). Maps are of projected
monthly-averaged 500 hPa geopotential heights, 850 hPa temperature,
surface temperature, and degree-day totals including standardized
anomalies of the fields. M2 information is available after the
15th of each month. Also available are tabulated values (t) of
either 24 U.S. focus cities (which include the 15 CME cities)
or the full set of 183 U.S. cities. The tables of focus cities
include anomalies with respect to 10yr, 20yr, 30yr, and 40yr full-decade
averages and information on the spread of the projections due
to individual ensemble members' forecasts. The tabulated set of
183 stations includes anomalies with respect to 10yr and 20yr
full-decade averages only and no information on forecast spread.
Selected
Station Info: For each of 24 major
U.S. cities [including the 15 traded on the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME)], the following information is available for M1,
and, after the 15th of the month, M2.
-
A plot of the monthly degree
day accumulation with reference climatology
-
Tabulated mean and std. dev.
of projected and reference degree days for four reference
climates (10yr, 20yr, 30yr, 40yr) and the historical reference
values for 10yr and 20yr.
-
Plots of the daily projected
degree day values (using 10y and 30yr reference climates)
and, for CME cities, settlement values since the middle of
the previous month.
-
Plots of the ensemble mean
forecast temperature and bias for various averaging intervals.
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